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NBA Draft Preview 2010: Point Guards
I think we can all agree that John Wall is the top player in this year’s NBA Draft, but for my money the Point Guard crop is as weak as it’s been in recent memory. In fact, if I were drafting or coaching an NBA team in need of a PG, I’d draft Evan Turner who is not only the best Shooting Guard in the draft but is also the second best Point.
In fact, this year’s crop is so confusing that one Draft site has Jerome Randle as the #2 PG while another has him #10. That same site has Wall’s Wildcat running mate Eric Bledsoe at #2.
Don’t be surprised if we don’t see 10 point guards selected in this draft.
Question: If Kentucky had the consensus #1 pick in the draft, two other lottery picks (Cousins, Patterson), the “second best” point guard (Bledsoe), and another potential first-rounder (Orton)…how did they NOT win the championship?
The Best
John Wall – 6’4 190, Kentucky: Very athletic guard with freakishly long arms (6’9 wingspan). Great speed and quickness, especially good changing ends in transition. Needs work on the stroke to become a consistent threat from the NBA 3-pt. line.
The Rest
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Armon Johnson – 6’3 190, Nevada: Strongest point guard in the draft (18 reps at 185). Lefty who can score, not a true PG, more of a combo guy. Uses long arms (6’8 wingspan) & good legs (38.5” vertical leap) on dribble drive into the lane.
Eric Bledsoe – 6’1 192, Kentucky: If he were in last year’s PG draft class would he even be on the radar? Nice athlete who really needs work refining floor game & skill level.
Mikhail Torrance – 6’5 209, Alabama: Big guard who played well in Portsmouth. Good off dribble especially to left, got by perceived quicker guards although he did not test out very well athletically.
Avery Bradley – 6’3 180, Texas: Young, small shooting guard who makes you think of Daniel Gibson, who really never became a point. He’s three years from being a key player on a winning team and won’t be leading anyone to a playoff win anytime soon.
Jerome Randle – 5’10 160, Cal: Pac-10 Player of the Year and outstanding in Portsmouth where he outplayed all the other small guys (Downey, Ish Smith, Wise). Very small and originally thought of as a shooter with deep range but displayed solid ball pressure defensively and passed very well at PIT.
Others
Greivis Vasquez – 6’6 211, Maryland: Competitor, gamer. Has a lot of high level experience in both ACC and FIBA action.
Sherron Collins – 6’0 217, Kansas:Won a National Championship.
John Scheyer – 6’6 180, Duke: Great shooter, competes. Won a National Title.
Matt Bouldin – 6’5 227, Gonzaga: WCC MVP, good passer who can post up with size/strength.
So obviously I’m not a big fan of the PG class but to further make a point, I’ll end with a question.
If Patty Mills and Nick Calathes had stayed in school another year would they be lottery picks?
Chris Denker is Managing Partner of NetScouts and can be followed on Twitter @chrisdenker.
NBA Draft Preview 2010: Shooting Guards
The Shooting Guard position has much more depth than the Point Guard spot led by Collegiate Player of the Year Evan Turner. Although there aren’t a lot of big-time shooters there are several good athletes who can contribute in the right situation.
The Best
Evan Turner – 6’7 214, Ohio State: Good size. Extremely versatile and skilled guard who does a number of things well. Passes well and rebounds very well from the guard position.
The Rest
Dominique Jones – 6’5 216, South Florida: Long arms (6’9 wingspan), very strong and good lateral quickness. Scores well and gets where he wants with the ball. Can create his own shot.
Jordan Crawford – 6’4 198, Xavier: Could really have benefited from another year but has talent and can score in bunches. Pretty explosive and has good quicks. Not real big or strong, could be an issue against bigger 2G’s who can post him.
Terrico White – 6’5 203, Ole Miss: Long armed leaper (40 inch vertical). Has NBA body & athleticism but needs to be more consistent, streaky career in SEC.
Elliot Williams – 6’4 180, Memphis (via Duke): Lefty. Role player, active defender at Duke. Became more of a scorer at Memphis but is not at all ready to be that guy in NBA.
Lance Stephenson – 6’6 227, Cincy: Wide bodied guard, thick through hips and shoulders, long arms (6’10 wingspan). Good scoring ability but needs continued work on stroke. Will he work to defend and develop his game?
James Anderson – 6’6 208, Oklahoma St.: Average athletically but can score. Averaged over 22 ppg slashing and getting to the line. Shot it much better from 3 in 2009, a bit streaky.
Others
Darrington Hobson – 6’6 204, New Mexico: Smooth lefty. Weak physically. Good shooter but needs to improve range & consistency. Best attribute may be his passing ability.
Xavier Rabaseda – 6’6 210, Cornella (via Regal Barcelona):Owned by same club that Ricky Rubio plays for but played in LEB Gold for Cornella this year. Very good 3-point shooter. Don’t be surprised if he’s chosen in 2nd round and left in Spain for a couple years.
Willie Warren – 6’3 208, Oklahoma: Not overly athletic, should be in college.
Chris Denker is Managing Partner of NetScouts and can be followed on Twitter @chrisdenker. Photo by FIBA.
NBA Draft Preview 2010: Small Forwards
It’s been said that the Power Forward position is the best of this draft but I would have to disagree. I think there are more Small Forward’s who will make a roster coming from this draft than any other position.
One reason, besides sheer talent and depth, is the weak PG class and the lack of exceptional shooters at the SG spot. Thus, when selecting the “Best Available” player, many teams will end up selecting a versatile player from the Small Forward position.
This group has guys who have outstanding length, some very skilled guys who could play the 2-spot as well, some who will earn a paycheck playing defense, and others who are just physically strong, tough, and competitive and will earn a roster spot.
The Best
Wesley Johnson – 6’7 200, Syracuse: Enjoyed a breakout year for the Orange after transferring from Iowa State. Long and thin (7’1 Wingspan), but sneaky strong (16 reps). Legit athlete possesses great speed in transition game, can finish and shoots it decently. Had best no-step vertical (32”) in entire draft. Could struggle a bit vs. thick/strong SF’s on the block defensively. Word is he’s even better in locker room & as a teammate.
The Rest
Al-Farouq Aminu – 6’8 216, Wake Forest: IncrediblyLong arms (7’3 wingspan & 9’1 standing reach) allow him to play “bigger” than his 6’8 frame suggests, in fact he’s considerably longer than “long” Ed Davis who’s 6’10. Needs to fill out a bit but is solid (not spectacular) athletically. Needs work on stroke and range to really develop but has tools.
Paul George – 6’9 214, Fresno State: Could possibly become the best of the bunch. Very skilled perimeter guy who even played some point in college. Good stroke and overall “hand-skills” facing. Needs strength and could add some post up to his offensive game, at his size he could be very dangerous vs. 2’s & 3’s on the block as both a scorer and passer. Again, he measures out similarly to Ed Davis, so who would you take? A 6’9 SG/SF who has guard skills or a thin 6’10 PF who has range to 15’ on a good day…?
Luke Babbitt – 6’9 220, Nevada: Surprised many by his athletic testing results which were very good. In fact his 37.5 inch vertical was one of the top 5. He’s a skilled kid who can step out and shoot but also gets after boards well. Played a perimeter 4 in college and will need to defend 3’s in NBA.
Gordon Hayward – 6’8 211, Butler: As I sat behind the Bulldog bench in San Jose during the NCAA 1st Round watching Hayward struggle, it was tweeted that he’d be coming out early. My disbelief was not because I don’t like him or his game, who doesn’t like him? But he’s not ready, even after the great tourney run. But if he’s picked mid-first and make a guaranteed $1.5M, who am I to say he made a bad choice? He’s weak & needs work on the stroke but I do think over time he’ll be a solid player.
Xavier Henry – 6’6 210, Kansas: Really more of a SG in the NBA but doesn’t possess ANY guard-like handle & distribution skills. Good shooter which is a good dimension to have when you possess one.
Quincy Pondexter – 6’7 220, Washington: Great motor, plays very hard and bigger than 6’7. Got a lot done inside for Dawgs this year including grabbing nearly 8 boards a game. Good defender and really runs the floor to finish breaks.
Others
Damion James – 6’7 230, Texas: Good size, strength, and athleticism but not the most skilled guy of the bunch.
Lazar Hayward – 6’6 226, Marquette:One of those guys who could surprise and make a squad. Tough, competes, can you say Wesley Mathews?
Stanley Robinson – 6’8 213, UConn: Great vertical leap, should be good in dunk contests but will he help an NBA team win a game?
Devin Ebanks – 6’8 208, West Va.: Another guy I like who wasn’t ready. There isn’t a team in Spain’s ACB who’d take him out of college, D-League is waiting.
This is a good group of players, most of whom will be drafted because they will be the “Best Available.”
One guy I’d keep an eye on is Da’Sean Butler – 6’7 230, West Va. I’ve always said I’d take a proven commodity over “potential” any day…DeJuan Blair/Hasheem Thabeet.
But I digress, although he’s coming off a major knee injury which is a legitimate concern, he’s done more in big games against the BEST competition than 90% of the guys in this draft.
That has to count for something.
Chris Denker is Managing Partner of NetScouts and can be followed on Twitter @chrisdenker.
NBA Draft Preview 2010: Power Forwards
The Power Forward position is an interesting one as it relates to this year’s NBA Draft. There are no more than 5 guys that will be impact players in my opinion. There are however another 5 or so who could potentially make a roster and find ways to contribute (defensively, rebounding, shot blocking).
There are several International players who’ll also be drafted who are frontline players but since Donatas Montiejunas (7’0 Lithuania) is staying in Europe, I don’t see many of them making the immediate impact that guys like Omri Casspi and Jonas Jerebko did this past year.
The Best
Derrick Favors – 6’10 245, Ga Tech: Good body for young big guy with very long arms. He’s powerful & explosive, good jumper and strong (tested well also). Needs refinement on footwork & low post game. Needs to develop better passing skills against NBA double teams but should contribute early as a rebounder and rim runner.
Greg Monroe – 6’11 247, Georgetown: Some list him as a Center, which I don’t see. He’s a finesse guy (which can be his downfall) who has good hand-skills. He’s best inside/out. I like his ability to block shots (Lefty) and pass from the high post, could develop into a solid Pick & Pop guy although his shooting range is shaky.
The Rest
Ekpe Udoh – 6’10 237, Baylor: Good frame, wide shoulders. Strange fact: He has a 7’5” wingspan (good) but only 8’11” reach compared to 9’2” – 9’3” of guys his size…which means he has wide shoulders but very short arms.
Good athlete with good timing who can defend a couple spots and blocks shots. Quick first step, can face and drive it versus “big” PF’s. Solid stroke tech needs range work. I think he can be a nice player and if he falls to Toronto they’d be crazy to pass him up.
Patrick Patterson – 6’9 240, Kentucky:He’s average to above average in every way…athletically he’s just okay. Skill wise he looks fine but then never REALLY produces. He’s the kind of guy who’ll go high but if he played Luke Harangody in a game of 1-on-1 I think he’d lose and we all know Harangody produced more statistically 5-on-5 so I guess I don’t get what the hype is about.
Craig Brackins – 6’10 229, Iowa St.: Narrow frame through hips and shoulders and not real strong which could pose issues on the block vs. big NBA PF’s but is a skilled and very long-armed Pick/Pop 4-man. He could develop into a nice player because he has some offensive ability and room to grow as well.
Ed Davis – 6’10 220, North Carolina: Lefty. Reminds me of another 6’10 Left handed Tar Heel, Brandan Wright. Who hasn’t been a good investment and Davis has proven to be injury prone as well.
He’s limited skill wise and lacks range. Not sure who he’ll overpower on the block in the league and he’s similar physically to Paul George who can play SG/SF and has the stroke.
Others
Larry Sanders – 6’11 222, VCU: Shot blocker, defender with limited offensive ability.
Jarvis Varnardo – 6’10 210, Mississippi St.: Great shot-blocker, one of the best in NCAA & SEC history. Inconsisent.
Charles Garcia – 6’9 232, Seattle U.: Perimeter post guy who loves his jumper. Needs to contribute in other ways as well.
Trevor Booker – 6’7 240, Clemson:Thick & strong, tough guy. Competes & crashes glass. Don’t call him Maxiel, he doesn’t have the length.
Internationals
Pablo Aguilar – 6’8 220, Granada, Spain
Ludovic Vaty – 6’9 215, France (Guadeloupe)
Robin Benzing – 6’10 210, Germany: National teamer with skills
Vladimir Dasic – 6’9 225, Real Madrid, Spain via Montenegro
Ryan Richards - 6'10 225, England
Chris Denker is Managing Partner of NetScouts and can be followed on Twitter @chrisdenker.